A new paper co-authored by Dr. Tunde Olarinoye of ICWRGC, together with researchers from Hawassa University, Ethiopia, Wageningen University, Netherlands, Forschungszentrum Jülich and TU Dresden, Germany has been published in the Journal of Hydrology.
The study, “Towards cooperation on transboundary rivers: achieving a win–win balance between upstream hydropower generation and downstream water demand under climate change,” explores how shared river systems can be managed to benefit both upstream and downstream users in an era of increasing climate stress.
Balancing competing water needs under climate change
The research addresses one of the most pressing challenges in transboundary river management – how to meet both upstream hydropower needs and downstream water demands in a changing climate. As temperature and precipitation patterns shift, river flow regimes are expected to become more variable, increasing tensions between energy production, irrigation, and ecosystem water requirements.
Key insights and findings
The study demonstrates that:
- Cooperative water management strategies can lead to “win–win” outcomes – supporting both hydropower generation and downstream water availability under future climate scenarios.
- Integrated planning and data-driven modelling improve the balance between energy and water security while reducing the risks of shortages during dry seasons.
- Collaborative policy frameworks are essential to strengthen coordination among riparian countries and enhance resilience to climate-induced water stress.
Relevance for water governance
By combining hydrological modelling with scenario analysis, the authors provide evidence-based insights for decision-makers and water managers involved in transboundary river governance.
The findings highlight that cooperation rather than competition offers the most effective pathway toward sustainable management of shared water resources.
The authors show that cooperative water management strategies can create “win–win” outcomes supporting hydropower generation while ensuring sufficient water for agriculture, ecosystems, and communities downstream. Their results underline the importance of joint planning, data-driven modelling, and coordinated governance to strengthen resilience and reduce conflicts over shared water resources.
Read the full article: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135111
